Eduardo Brik
There's just a month left for the Peace Conference summoned by Bush Administration in Annapolis, Maryland.
The negotiations between the parties that have taken place before the conference during the last months, don't predict an agreement according to the regional and international political analysis. So, the prospects which allow to think that a fair peace can be reached are being questioned.
Expectations decrease
Condolezza Rice has come back to Washington with empty hands after her journey through the Middle East. For the first time, she has admitted that there are important obstacles for the conference to be successful.
The North American Secretary of State has tried to convince Ehud Barak, Ministry of Defense of Israel, of the fact that his scepticism about the conference is not positive, and that governments have to choose between “the bad thing and the worst” in given moments.
If there is not going to be a rapprochement nor an advance in the peace process, according to Rice, radical Islamic forces are going to become more powerful. This is a last chance to think about the two state solution.
The different meetings between Abbas and Olmert which have taken place since Hamas occupied the Gaza Strip last March, haven't brought the appropriate circumstances for the solution of the conflict.
Three main points which are weak :
Definite borders, refugees and Jerusalem .
Previous meetings fulfilled the protocol: the expected photographs, shacked hands, pretended smiles and contradictory declarations from both parties, in front of cameras while it was said again and again that if there is dialog, there is hope.
However, Abbas said, in his trip through Indonesia, that he hopes the conflict to be resolved before 2008 ends, and he highlighted the importance of reconciliation with Hamas.
He also declared that Hamas is part of the Palestinian people and that they can't be ignored.
Abbas' political future is in risk in this conference. He wants to get important results without granting the main Palestinian vindications.
In case he doesn't achieve it, his leadership will be called into question, and Islamic forces will get into the West Bank again. So it could be said that historical responsibility of the failure of negotiations is the Israeli refusal to negotiate, because what they seek is to have an endless negotiation while the Palestinian occupation and pressure rise and the settlements grow.
The Israeli Government has given clear samples in these previous conversations of not wanting to negotiate fundamental points to reach an agreement, agreement that is difficult to say that is going to turn into a definitive peace process.
Ehud Olmert, before starting off for Paris and London within his European tour, talked to the journalists of his doubts about this conference being “an event for an agreement or an historical advance ".
Before they left, the members of the Israeli parties “Beitenu” and “Shahs” threatened to leave the coalition and to overthrow the current government if the three thorny subjects are dealt in this conference: borders, Jerusalem and refugees.
Olmert travels to Europe with the aim of looking for allies against the Iranian threat and to find unified answers from the Washington, Paris, London and Tel - Aviv axis, and at the same time to combine positions with these countries in order to have a backing in the Peace Conference to celebrate at the end of the year.
If we only think in the nuclear threat and the Iranian radicalisation that without a doubt is a reality, in the Syria threat of Hezbollah in the Lebanon and and of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, our Machiavellian and geostrategic mind has the perfect alibi not to get involved and to dedicate completely to the resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which simply consists of the deoccupation of all the settlements and of the Israeli Army in the West Bank , the return to the borders the 4th of June of 1967 and a fair negotiation to the problem of the Palestinian refugees according to the resolutions of the UN, negotiation on Jerusalem to be the capital city for both States and the establishment of an independent Palestinian State.
The Israeli Intelligence services have denounced last week, that was an attempt of murdering Olmert by forces of Palestine security connected to Al-Fatah occurred when he travelled to Jerico last August, whereas the ANP denies it and declares that is a “fantasy” and a “bad pretext” to interrupt the dialogue.
With this background, the Israeli political machinery tries to weaken the Palestinian pretensions in Maryland at the end of year. Even if this attempt was true or not, what is clear and cannot be hidden, is the manipulation that they tried to do of it, to hinder any attempt of negotiation between equal parties, reducing this form any type of hope in this conference.
Neither Hamas nor Syria appear like guests and there is not a fixed schedule to treat, but the extreme Israeli right and the settler movement know clearly : all the protagonists are in their front sight, so that nobody advances to reconciliation, negotiation, peace and justice.
The aim of this Conference is to make up the dirty face of the policy of the Bush administration in the Middle East.
USA has a crucial power in his hands to pressure Israel to give the necessary steps toward a truly and fair negotiation with the Palestinian ANP delegation.
If USA doesn´t do it, it will mean that they are not actually interested in the conflict solution .
Nevertheless, the democratic forces and the Civil Society in Palestine in Israel and all pacifist movements and Peace NGO, involved intellectuals, must raise their voice and take advantage of this Conference to press the Palestinian and Israeli Governments, in order to ratify a clear and fair position that leads to a Definitive peace agreement which puts an end to the conflict and initiates a new stage of Peace in the region.
If it was like that, the possibility of a negotiation of Syria with Hamas, with Hezbollah, the Lebanon, and the global recognition of Israel in the Arab countries of the zone would be opened.
